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Early Voting Results: Who Leads in Battleground States Nov. 4

Early Voting Results, Hillary Clinton Donald Trump polls, Quinnipiac University poll, are polls wrong, are polls skewed, North Carolina early voting, Ohio Early voting, African-American turnouts

North Carolina early voters wait in line to cast their ballots. (Getty)

More than 40 million Americans have voted early as of November 5.

Early voting results have shown positives for Republicans in some important swing states, like North Carolina, Iowa, and Florida, where the Democratic proportion of early voting is down compared to 2012. Democrats are performing strongly, though, in other important states, like Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona.

A concern for Democrats, though: A decline in the black vote in early voting tallies in some critical states (like North Carolina and Georgia), since black voters overwhelmingly prefer Hillary Clinton. The black vote is down in 7 key states, according to a Washington Post analysis. The white vote is up in 5 and down in 4. However, blacks vote far more lopsidedly for one side – in this case, Clinton’s.

However, Hispanic turnout is up in some states – like Arizona – which likely helps Clinton (although current polls there favor Trump.) Hispanic turnout is up in seven states; this matters less in states with a small Hispanic vote overall and more in states like Arizona and Nevada with a large one.

Democrats historically lead in in-person early voting, so it’s important to compare returns to 2012.

However, even a mixed bag in the early voting battlegrounds might be good news for Clinton. That’s because Trump needs to prevail in most if not all of the battleground states to have a chance to win. For example, some experts who have analyzed the Nevada returns say they point toward a victory for Hillary Clinton in a state where 69% of the electorate early voted in the last presidential election. It will be very tough for Trump to find a path to victory without Nevada (and other battleground states).

Consider this potential electoral map (Trump has been up in recent Nevada polls, and the North Carolina race is a dead heat):

This map, which Heavy created using the RealClearPolitics customizing website for the electoral college, shows how Trump needs to pick up more states even if he does well in states that are virtually tied.

This map, which Heavy created using the RealClearPolitics customizing website for the electoral college, shows how Trump needs to pick up more states even if he does well in states that are virtually tied.

There are questions about how predictive early voting returns can be, of course. States don’t release returns by candidate yet; some do release party affiliation. Independent voters matter, and how they voted can’t be predicted from the early voting tallies. Turnout on election day matters too. Recent polls both in battleground states and nationally have found the race tightening in Trump’s favor in the past week.

Furthermore, not all battleground states allow robust early voting, and Trump seems to be targeting several that do not lately (like Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania). Only 5% of the latter state early voted in 2012, and Pennsylvania voters can change their absentee votes besides.

Democrats are banking on early voting to shore up Clinton as Trump gains in the polls. Three national polls released November 4 had the race a literal or virtual tie. Of 9 national polls in the last few days, 2 are a literal tie, 5 are a 3% lead for Clinton or under (within the margin of error for many polls), and 2 showed Clinton with leads outside the margin of error for most polls. Trump does not lead in any of the national polls, though.

In multiple critical battleground states, where the election will be decided, Trump’s polling has continued to improve in recent days. For example, he’s now ahead an average 1.5% in New Hampshire. The past week’s shifts have turned a series of battleground states into virtual ties (North Carolina, Nevada, even potentially Colorado). In other states (like Arizona and Georgia), where he was leading slightly, he strengthened his edge. Most ominously for Clinton, she only leads by an average of 2.6% in Pennsylvania, and the most recent polls there showed the race a tie and Clinton leading by 1 and 2 (Pennsylvania is facing one of the country’s highest Obamacare premium increases, news announced October 24 by the U.S. government).

In 12 of 14 battleground states, Trump improved his standing from October 27 (the day before FBI Director James Comey sent his letter to Congress on Clinton’s emails) and November 2-3. However, a big early voting edge – up from 2012 – in even a few key battleground states could give the election to Clinton. (Here are 7 routes to victory for Clinton in the electoral college, and 7 routes for Trump.)

As of November 4, here are some battleground state break-downs of early voting tallies:


Florida

More Republicans have early voted in Florida than Democrats, although Democrats lead slightly in in-person voting and Republicans by mail, according to the Florida Secretary of State.

By mail:
Republican 985,142
Democrat 910,908
Unaffiliated 414,719

In person:
Republican 1,108,444
Democrat 1,180,845
Unaffiliated 540,584

Republican total 2,093,586 (33.4%)
Democrat total 2,091,753 (33.4%)
Independent percentage (15.6%)
Total early votes/in mail cast (including other): 6,260,236

In 2008, according to CNN, Democrats led Republicans in early voting. Black share of the electorate has dropped since then, although Latino turnout is up, said CNN.

Politico said Democrats led early voting returns in 2012 43% to 40%.


Nevada

Thus far, Democrats have about 40% of the Nevada early vote to about 36% for Republicans and 23% other for week 2 early voting through November 3, according to the Nevada Secretary of State.

The Democrats had an edge in 2012, too. They led 44 percent with Republicans at 37 percent. Obama won Nevada in 2012 52.3% to 45.7%.

To put this in perspective, this Democratic lead is down just a bit from 2012, but not enough to be all that significant. At this point in early voting in 2012, the Democrats were ahead of the Republicans 45 percent to 37 percent.

A KTNV reporter who has been analyzing the early voting results believes it will be very difficult for Trump to overcome the Democratic early voting tallies unless he does extremely well with independents, Clinton doesn’t hold her base, and Trump holds his. It’s unclear which way they will break of course.

The local television reporter, Jon Ralston, has been analyzing early voting returns there and has found that patterns project a Clinton victory.

How certain is Ralston of a Clinton victory after rummaging through all of the early voting data in a state where almost 70% of the electorate early votes? This is what he wrote on November 5, “the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday. Trump’s path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday.” What happened was strong Democratic and Latino turnout.

Ralston noted, “The Dems now have a firewall — approaching 73,000 ballots — greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points.”

Here’s one scenario through which Trump wins Nevada, according to the reporter: “Both hold 80 percent of base and Trump wins indies by 20: 49-45, Trump.” The reporter concluded, Trump “can win Nevada. But Trump would need base numbers and indie numbers that seem unlikely right now.”

Nevada Early Voting Update: Clinton Almost Certain to Win

Nevada's early voting results suggest that Hillary Clinton will easily beat Donald Trump in the state despite narrowing polls.

Click here to read more

Pennsylvania

According to ABC News, Pennsylvania voters can only vote early by sending in an absentee ballot. They can change their early vote on person on Election Day. The rules are fairly stringent. To vote absentee, Pennsylvania voters must be mentally incapacitated or out of town.

This helps Trump because early voting is not as robust in Pennsylvania; thus more people are voting after polls have tightened there in his favor. In 2012, only 5% of the state cast absentee ballots. (Compare that to a state like Nevada, where 69% of the electorate early votes). Michigan and New Hampshire also do not have wide open early voting and do not have in-person early voting. Numbers for Pennsylvania early voting were not immediately available, but the procedure for doing so is much more restrictive than in some other states where any qualified voter can early vote.


Colorado

The Denver Post’s early ballot tracker shows the Democratic edge over Republicans in early voting has been closing.

As of November 4:

Republicans 547,775 (35.8%)
Democrats 554,340 (36.1%)
Unaffiliated 429,267 (28%)
Total 1,531,382

In 2012, Democrats had 35 percent of early votes and Republicans had 37 percent. So Democratic is up slightly and Republican is down. How independents will break is not known, of course. But the shifting pacing could be good news for Clinton in Colorado where polls are tightening recently.

Obama won Colorado 51.2% to 46.5% in 2012.


North Carolina

In 2012, Democrats had 48 percent of early votes and Republicans had 32 percent. Romney won the state 50.39% to 48.35%.

This year, the North Carolina Secretary of State is reporting the following early voting turnout figures:
Democrat 42.3%
Republican 31.9%
Unaffiliated 25.5%
Libertarian 0.29%

Thus, Republican turnout is fairly level, but Democratic is down since 2012. Turnout among black voters is down this year in North Carolina, and the number of registered Democrats in the state has dropped.

In North Carolina, 17 counties controversially decreased the number of early voting locations, said NBC News; this has resulted in long lines at some polling places and lower early voting tallies. NBC said one county, Guilford County, which houses the largely black city of Greensboro, “cut early voting locations from 16 to just one.” This has resulted in declining early voting totals in North Carolina overall.

North Carolina Early Voting Update: Democratic Turnout Down Since 2012

In North Carolina, the percentage of Democrats participating in early voting is down since 2012, good news for Donald Trump and bad news for Hillary Clinton.

Click here to read more

Utah

In Utah, 1.5 million people have cast early ballots. According to the Utah Secretary of State:
Republican 720,354
Democrat 176,687
Unaffiliated 615,002

With Democrats making up such a small percentage of the early voters, why are any eyes turning to Utah? It’s because independent candidate Evan McMullin is challenging Trump on the right, and he is from Utah.

However, Trump has recovered in recent polling there and leads in double digits in RealClearPolitics polling averages. Utah has seen a decline in early voting, which some officials attributed to voters still trying to make up their minds in the presidential race.


Georgia

In Georgia, more than 2.1 million early votes have already been cast.

Georgia doesn’t break down early votes by party affiliation. However, as with some other states, Clinton’s concern is that fewer African-Americans are voting early.

According to CNN, as of November 1, 1.5 million votes had already been cast in the state. Of those, 31 percent were from African American voters, a decrease from 36 percent at the same time in 2012.


Iowa

As of November 3, about 535,000 Iowans had cast their ballot early, according to the Iowa Secretary of State’s official report. Democrats hold a lead in votes cast, ahead of Republicans by 42,000 ballots.

However, turnout among Democrats in early voting in Iowa is down more than it is among Republicans, boding well for Trump.

CNN says Iowa early votes by Democrats are about 3 percent off their 2012 pace.

Iowa Early Voting Update: Donald Trump Has Advantage Over Hillary Clinton

Early voting numbers in Iowa show a decline in Democratic turnout, suggesting Donald Trump has a chance to pick up a win in the state.

Click here to read more

Ohio

In Ohio, officials don’t release party affiliation of early voting but geographic modeling can help make predictions.

Early voting in Democratic areas is less than Barack Obama in 2012, although early voting results for Clinton were slightly better in Ohio than last week.

For example, counties that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 have seen a 9 percentage increase in early ballot requests compared to 0.8 percent increase for Obama voting counties.


Arizona

According to CNN, Republicans lead in early voting in this traditional Republican state, but by less than they led in 2012.

That’s led Democrats to compete more aggressively in Arizona, although Trump leads in recent polls. CNN did say that Republicans were gaining more ground as early voting continued. However, Hispanic turnout among early voting is up, likely boosting Clinton.

Arizona Early Voting Results: Hispanic Turnout Up, Republican Turnout Down

More Hispanic voters are casting ballots early in Arizona than did by this point in 2012. Could Hillary Clinton, not Donald Trump, win the state?

Click here to read more

Ohio Early Voting Update: Hillary Clinton Catching Up to Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton is beginning to catch up on Donald Trump in Ohio early voting, but the Republican candidate still has a good chance of victory.

Click here to read more

Clinton vs. Trump: Trump Gains in Many Battleground State Polls

Latest 2016 presidential polls in Clinton vs. Trump have shown Trump gaining support in many battleground states in the past week, but the electoral math remains tough.

Click here to read more

Read more about Donald Trump and Melania in Spanish at AhoraMismo.com:

Melania Trump: Las Fotos Más Sexys y Escandalosas de la Esposa de Donald Trump

Melania Trump, la esposa de Donald Trump, tiene una historia muy única cuando se trata de mujeres casadas con candidatos…

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61 comments

  1. I want to thank the author here for not showing in bias, she was not trying to sway voters to either party… or any hints of boas towards trump. She presented the numbers and looked at map and that was it. That is what real journalist is supposed to do. Be neutral and not push any agenda…

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    • I think so to. I live in South Florida now but i grew up near Johnstown in the 80s-90s, that area is included in the vast space between Pittsburgh and Phily that some people call “Pennsyltucky”. They call it that since you could swear its Kentucky if you didnt know better except its much colder…its a humorous word but it is true and i loved that about the place actually. Anyways atleast when i was growing up there, most folks didnt vote in the rural/Pennsyltucky area. The old people always did but to most other people, they didnt because the prevailing thought was along the lines of – “why bother? It wont change anything anyways.”

      Donald Trump being pro-coal is huge. Its a heritage for atleast a million people in that state going back generations, and that alone will have people who never voted for come out to vote for Trump. Its a nod in their direction so to speak, to a people who feel left behind. Another thing is, he is not a poltician and that to resonates with the people there…I could be wrong but as far as im concerned if Trump loses PA he wont win this election and if he pulls a “stunner” and wins PA then he has this in the bag. I think he will win it.

      • Were we phycics or what? PA for Trump, i knew my folks would not let me down…Now i hope Trump on his first day in office puts down these RIOTS (they are not protests, lying media again) and has the authorities check immigration status to. I live in South Fl and these people are blocking roads and terrorizing people, many of them are illegals.

  2. The author failed to mention that there is real live exit polling in Florida for early voters.

    In that state, 6% of Dem voters who voted early voted for Trump. 28% of GOP voters who voted early voted for Clinton.

    Do the math. Traditional college educated GOP voters, and especially educated GOP women are not voting for the orange circus peanut. The “NeverTrump” movement is real.

    We’re looking at a Clinton Landslide.

      • even nate silver,who skew polls to the right?really your quoting nate silver.funny thing is that the last few primaires trump won,with no opposition ,he still was getting 67-70% ie even with no one on the ballot he did not get 100%,that 20-30% numbers keeps poping up.

    • why would anybody vote for the biggest crime boss in history Hillary Clinton, maybe another criminal or welfare and food stamp recepient

      • And you couldn’t even put a name in this racist, ill written and incendiary post. Coward. This is exactly what is turning people off and away from the repubs. The same lies repeated over and over, and the presumption that democrats are either criminals or welfare recipients. You are WRONG on both counts, especially on the welfare recipient part, as whites apply and receive more help than blacks and Hispanics combined. Shame on you.

        • Anonymous didn’t say anything about race when referring to criminals or welfare recipients. Shame on you, Bigot! Hahaha. That b.s. narrative isn’t going to work anymore. We’re Americans! We overcome! No one cares about what kind of race you think you are. We care what kind of person you are.

        • Total number of whites exceeds total number of blacks, which is why more whites may receive welfare, but you need to understand, the percentage of the black population on welfare is about twice that of the percentage of the white population. Hispanics fall in between. What does it matter which race is on welfare anyway?

      • crime boss,so what crime was she convicted of?we had 4 years of benghazi,trouble is the 1 investigation said itwas all fake,yet you people continued for 4 year,8 investigation call it all a lie.the emails?no crime committed.funny bush deleted 22 MILLION emails,romeny spent 100k replacing hard drives and servers to ‘delete’ his emails.but no concern about those,trump was ordered to turn of over email in lawsuit,he deleted them.
        by the way most welfare are white southerners ie republicans.

    • The only reason Hillary Clinton is still in this race is because, the woman card and the welfare and food stamps recipients don’t want to lose their bread and butter, they would vote for Clinton even if she killed her parents, she is the biggest crime boss, in history, bigger then the mafia and bigger then Escobar from the Colombian cartel. I just don’t get it, America wake up; if she wins she will screw all of us royally.

      • Torres, you’re nothing but a discount store bigot!! And if you remember correctly, it was your candidate, Donald, who stated he could shoot someone in the middle of Frifth Avenue and not lose a single vote! So, since you support Trump, that means he could shoot your parents, and you’d still vote for him!!

        Geez, when are Trump supporters ever going to learn what debate is . . . any three-year-old can be a schoolyard bully!

      • Most thinking people realize that all the “crimes” republicans refer to when they talk about Hillary, Filegate, Whitewater, Benghazi, Travelgate, Rose law firm billing, cattle futures, 50 odd “murders”, rapes, treason, uranium deal, ad nauseum, have all been proven to be republican lies. Proven to be false by republican investigators, republican prosecutors, and over $160 million wasted on all the various investigations have all come up empty handed. She’s never been charged with a crime let alone actually committed one that merited being charged. All proven to be false accusations because republicans can’t win national office at the ballot box so they resort to lies and innuendo. Comey, a lifelong republican with the infinite resources of the FBI, came to the same conclusion on the email situation. Fact, not RW fiction.

    • My wife works in an office in Coral Gables with a few Cuban American women. All are registered republicans and have never voted for a dem for president, ever. All are not only not voting for Trump, but actually voting for Hillary. Four in total that have told her they are voting for Hillary. I’m sure they’re not alone. He has turned off all Hispanics and they’re are not pleased about it, to put it mildly.

    • Well when the muslim horde blows u to kingdom come that’s coming and the rapes of kids, the cartels of South America and the transvestite’s in your little girls bathroom. You can proudly say u voted for clinton and made this happen

  3. There was not one poll or one person that would have predicted Trump would win every county in the NY GOP primary. Consistently he has outperformed the polls in every primary race. That’s what happens when you have a movement. Plus, reports are out that Trump is getting close to 20% of the black vote in early voting, way higher than any GOP candidate since the 60’s.

    • Do you actually believe Trump is getting higher % black votes than any GOP since 1960 ? If you do, I suggest that number may be higher than your IQ

    • One this is to play in the GOP sandbox and push everyone around, but it’s not the same game anymore. The GOP is split with many GOP members not even recognizing Trump as a Republican. GOP primary was a disgrace, the whole brand needs to evaluate itself and start from start.

    • Primaries were a completely different race. The republican party is in shambles and that’s why reps voted for trump in nyc counties. It’s a whole different ball of wax now as we vote for President and congressional seats. The clinton supporters will come out in droves to put this shit show to rest. Most disgraceful election ever and Trump has exploited emotional citizens and which in turn has created so much hate and ugliness that we will now have to take so much valuable time to clean up his mess and heal a nation instead of using all of that time to focus on tweaking/fixing ACA and all the great plans HRC is working on to move us forward. huge sigh. but optimistic that most of the trump fans will shake off the negativity and think about our kids and their future.

      • your race baiting, class warfare elitist is about to get an exteeended ASS DRILLING.
        Since she’s LEAKED ALL her (our, dumbshit) Hostile Foreign Actors will join in, blackmailing and rolling her greedy voided soul!
        HER ACTIONS, HER Fault!
        brilliant leadership to you, I suppose, echo-chamber socialist!
        Ass DRILLING. PROMISE!

  4. Maria Elena Salinas from channel 41 Univision Florida, gets paid by the Clintons to lie to the Latin people, everything about her is a lie, just like Hillary, do not listen to her, she tries to manipulate Latinos. She doesn’t represent Latin people.

    • Your proof, elisa . . .Trumpettes are great with the sensationalism, but never provide any proof . . . just constant lies and hyper paranoia . . . YAWN!!

  5. Hillary and Obama use Jennifer Lope, Beyoncé and Jay Z to manipulate the black people and Latinos to steal their votes.

    • Using? Not quite lol. They are huge entertainers that have brains just like us. They just happen to support her and want to do their part in this crucial election year. Same as when Trump like to bring out his famous supporters like Scott Baio and the Duck Dynasty guy. what’s the difference?

    • Are you saying Latinos and African Americans aren’t bright enough to discern the facts of the election, Claudia? Doesn’t say much for your or your own culture does it?

  6. Obama and Hillary are so desperate to win the election, so they could sweep all the corruption under the rug,
    The money they gave to Iran is blackmail money for what Iran knows from hacking into Hillary Clintons server. It’s so bad that they would give Iran billions of dollars to build nuclear arsenal. I think the Clintons, Obama and the people around them should go to jail for treason.

    • Louis you are a very intelligent person and did your independent research I see. I agree with you. We need someone with fresh ideas and real change in our government. WE NEED JOBS for ourselves and the future of our children. ALL PEOPLE of ALL colors and Donald Trump wants this too!!!

    • Why is Donald Trump still so afraid to show his tax returns, even though we all know he paid no taxes . . . could it be all his business Russian business dealings with his good buddy, Putin and his oligarch cronies????

    • And just who are the bloodsuckers? People who don’t pay taxes for 20 years in spite of being a self-proclaimed billionaire???

  7. And you think Clinton paid all her taxes, you are pretty stupid, Clinton has so many Negatives I will be here for days trying to convince you not to vote for that Joker looking face, let’s see the Clinton foundation, pay to play, selling Uranium to Russia, hiring people to create violence, where people got hurt and even died in NC. The vacuum that was created in Iraq by Clinton & Obama witch created this war Syria, just look how many people have died and left homeless, Just think of the Blood she has on her hands, so you want to compare this with income tax you F****inn stupid bastard.

  8. Let’s put the negativity aside, The Bottom line the American People need jobs, and a secure Country,
    When I say jobs not $7.00 per hour jobs real jobs, just take a look around you ask people that you know that lost their Jobs, or people coming out of College, ask them how long did it take you to find a job and what kind of pay did they settle for, so how many college graduates have to take jobs working in a supermarket, or no job at all.
    Do you really think Hillary will create jobs, look when she was senator she promised 200,000 jobs and when she left office there where 8,000 jobs less then when she began office, and how can you trust the security of our nation and our children in the hands of Hillary Clinton.

  9. I agree with you Jill 100%, I would like to add when the media announces the Job report, it’s false, it’s a Big Lie to all Americans because they only report the people that are receiving unemployment, in other words when your unemployment runs out you are removed from the list. The only thing the report shows is how many people are collecting unemployment not how many people are out of work, so the Obama Administration is a Big lie he tries to come off as hero by saying unemployment is down to 5% well if you count people out of work it’s like 30% 40% or more.